In a stark reminder of the climate crisis, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has predicted a 70% chance that Earth’s average global temperature for 2025–2029 will exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels,a key Paris Agreement target (Global Warning).
Key Projections from the WMO Report:
- 1.5°C Exceeded Temporarily:
- There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will record temperatures above 1.5°C over the 1850–1900 baseline.
- A 70% probability exists that the five-year average itself will breach 1.5°C.
- 2024 was already the hottest year on record, and the first full year to cross the 1.5°C line.
- There is an 86% chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will record temperatures above 1.5°C over the 1850–1900 baseline.
- Expected Temperature Rise (2025–2029):
- Each year’s global average temperature is forecast to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
- Each year’s global average temperature is forecast to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
- Arctic Warming & Sea Ice Shrinkage:
- The Arctic will warm 3.5x faster than the global average,about +2.4°C over the next five winters.
- Major sea ice loss expected in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas.
- The Arctic will warm 3.5x faster than the global average,about +2.4°C over the next five winters.
Regional Weather Changes:
- South Asia (including India):
- Wetter than usual conditions expected, continuing the trend seen in 4 of the past 5 years.
- The IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon rainfall for India in 2025.
- Wetter than usual conditions expected, continuing the trend seen in 4 of the past 5 years.
- Amazon: Predicted to get drier.
- Northern Europe, Alaska, Northern Siberia, and Sahel: Expected to receive more rainfall from May to September (Global Warning).
Global Impact & Urgency:
“We’ve just experienced the 10 warmest years on record… The WMO report offers no sign of relief, with rising temperatures threatening economies, ecosystems, and lives,” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General.
With countries due to submit their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the 2031–2035 period this year, the findings add urgency to aligning policies with the Paris climate goal to cap long-term warming below 1.5°C.Takeaway: We are nearing the climate danger zone. Temporary breaches of the 1.5°C limit are becoming common,and unless immediate, global-scale action is taken, long-term overshoot could become the new normal.
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