What Happened:
- Tesla’s Q2 2025 deliveries dropped 13.5% YoY, totaling 384,122 vehicles, down from 443,956 a year ago.
- It’s the second straight quarterly drop, putting Tesla on track for another full-year sales decline — unless it delivers over 1 million vehicles in the typically stronger second half.
- The fall was less severe than feared, lifting Tesla shares by 4.5%, though they’re still down ~25% YTD.
Missed Expectations:
- Analysts expected 394,378 deliveries, but Tesla missed the mark despite modest recovery signs.
- Still, deliveries were up 14% from Q1, signaling a possible turnaround.
Regional Glimmers:
- China: Tesla broke an 8-month slump, thanks to the refreshed Model Y, regaining some momentum amid tough competition from rivals like BYD.
- Europe: Upticks in Norway and Spain, despite backlash from Musk’s political stances, suggest some stabilization in sentiment.
What’s Dragging Tesla Down:
- Aging model lineup: No significant new vehicle in years, and cheaper models still delayed.
- Political controversies: Musk’s right-wing rhetoric is turning off buyers in Europe and the U.S..
- Uncertainty over EV tax credits under Trump’s proposed tax bill may hurt future demand.
- Robotaxi’s future remains murky amid regulatory concerns.
Market Voices:
“We’ve had so much bad news — almost any good news is going to help.”
— Shawn Campbell, Camelthorn Investments
“Rate of decline has slowed — indicating a potential bottoming out.”
— Sandeep Rao, Leverage Shares
Model Y Hope:
- Tesla is counting on the refreshed Model Y to drive recovery — it’s gaining traction, especially in China and parts of Europe.
- A cheaper version was expected by June, but has reportedly been delayed.
Outlook for 2025:
Tesla has a lot riding on a strong H2, especially with over 1M deliveries needed to avoid a full-year decline. But with tariff pressures, EV incentives at risk, and brand perception issues, it’s a tough road ahead.
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