Source: Charlotte Edwards, Business Reporter, BBC News | Trump Tariffs
(Title: “US tariffs will make global trade shrink, says WTO”, April 16, 2025)
What’s Happening?
- The World Trade Organization (WTO) now predicts that global trade will fall by 0.2% in 2025, reversing its earlier forecast of +2.7% growth.
- The reason? U.S. tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, along with retaliatory duties, political instability, and rising trade tensions.
Key Points:
| Indicator | Forecast/Change | Details |
| Global Trade Growth (2025) | -0.2% | Previously forecast at +2.7% |
| North America Trade | ↓ >10% | Sharpest decline among all regions |
| Global GDP (UNCTAD) | +2.3% | Below 2.5% recession threshold |
| Services Trade | +4% | Slower than earlier forecast |
Why This Matters:
- Tariffs = Less Trade. Uncertainty around U.S. trade policy is scaring off exporters, weakening economic activity.
- WTO Chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warns that U.S.-China decoupling is deeply concerning.
- Ralph Ossa, WTO’s chief economist, says tariff shocks reduce exports and global economic momentum.
Not All Doom and Gloom:
- Some regions like Asia and Europe may still show modest trade growth.
- Services trade (e.g. tourism, finance) is expected to grow 4%, though slower than expected.
What’s Going On in the U.S.?
- On April 5, the U.S. imposed a 10% baseline tariff on almost all foreign goods (with some exceptions).
- China responded with 145% tariffs on U.S. imports.
- Trump paused tariffs for 90 days on all but China after markets reacted negatively.
- U.S. stock markets dipped on the uncertainty.
Critics Speak Out:
“Tariffs are a policy lever with wide-ranging, and often unintended consequences.”
— Ralph Ossa, WTO Chief Economist
“Decoupling is really worrying.”
— Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO Director-General
Got it! Here’s the summary following the same format as the other news items:
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